Fertility rates are decreasing and families are becoming much smaller in developing countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and parts of India. The fertility rate of half the world will soon be 2.1 or less. The number 2.1 is considered to be ‘the replacement rate of fertility’; in other words, it is the ideal number for a stable population.

The world’s fertility is falling quickly and across the globe. The fertility rate is not the same as the birth rate, which is the number of children born each year. Instead, it represents the number of children that an average woman is likely to have during her childbearing years, usually taken as being 15 to 49 years old. We can therefore still expect a rise in population over the next few decades – the world’s population will rise from 6.8 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. However, according to the UN, if fertility continues to fall at its current rate, the population will stabilise in 2050.

The move to a lower fertility rate is thought to be one of the most dramatic changes in social history as it says a lot about how societies and mentalities are evolving. Wealth and fertility are linked. More women are working and more children are being educated, which is having a big impact on traditional family life in many countries. In Iran, for example, only 10% of rural women aged 20 to 24 were literate thirty years ago. That figure is now 91%; the Iranian population is one of the best educated in the Middle East, and the one which gives men and women the most equal chances as far as education is concerned. The result is three-fold for educated women: they are more to go out to work, demand contraception and want likelyfewer children.

Family planning in poorer countries is also a factor, but it is not available to everyone to the same extent. One study found that women in Latin America and Asia are much more likely to use contraception than women in Africa. Surveys carried out by the Demographic and Health Surveys programme suggests that there are many unplanned pregnancies. In India, the desired fertility rate in 2006 was 1.9; compared to the real fertility rate of 2.7. In poorer countries, women are starting to want fewer children than they are actually having. Mothers in developing countries today can expect to have three children, half as many as their mothers had.

The news has come as a surprise to many at a time when we often hear about the consequences of an overcrowded planet. However, the world’s population is still a cause for concern for the environment. The fear is that poor fast-growing countries will follow the West’s bad example of using up resources, at a serious cost to the environment. Today, the poorest African and Asian people produce 0.1 tonnes of carbon dioxide each a year, compared to 20 tonnes for each American.

The whole of society is set to change for poorer countries as a lower fertility rate, coupled with high mortality, means that there will be fewer babies and fewer grandparents, but many adults of working-age in the coming years. But one day, they might face the problem of an ageing population that many European countries face, but for now, it is balancing out for the first time ever.

By Bex

La terre un jour surpeuplée ? Il semble aujourd'hui que ce ne sera pas le cas et que le nombre de terriens risque même de décroître avant la fin de ce siècle. (A écouter en V.O. (cliquez sur le fichier MP3) à la fin de l'article. A noter également qu’en passant votre souris sur les mots en italique, ces derniers apparaissent traduits en surimpression.

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